In October 2023, Otis went from a tropical storm with sustained 70 mph winds to a Category 5 hurricane with sustained winds of 165 mph in six hours before it slammed into Acapulco, Mexico, killing dozens of people.
That storm’s rapid intensification was fueled by increasing water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico, which have made hurricanes harder to predict.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration defines rapid intensification as an increase in the maximum sustained winds of a tropical cyclone of at least 35 mph in a 24-hour period. Otis’ windspeed increased almost 100 mph in less than 12 hours, making it one of the fastest-intensifying hurricanes on record.
Such conditions typically would warrant an all-hands-on-deck approach to studying and communicating fast-developing weather changes but staffing reductions at the National Weather Service are cutting those efforts off at the knees, experts say.
U.S. Rep. Lizzie Fletcher, of Houston, is sounding the alarm about key personnel losses at the National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Forecast Office in advance of hurricane season.
Fletcher, and fellow Texas Reps. Sylvia R. Garcia and Al Green, all Democrats, said the office has a 44 percent vacancy rate with the start of hurricane season less than a month away.
The representatives wrote a letter Monday to NOAA Administrator Laura Grimm requesting answers to 10 questions regarding the agency’s staffing issues by May 30.
The representatives’ letter said NWS Houston/Galveston Forecast Office will soon lose all three members of its leadership staff — the meteorologist in charge, the warning coordination meteorologist and the science and operations officer — after staff reductions mandated by the Trump administration’s Department of Government Efficiency.
All three have either already departed or announced their plans to leave after the staffing reductions push, the representatives said.
“Losing any one of these three positions for an extended period could mean that the NWS Houston/Galveston Forecast Office will be forced to limit its outreach to the community, including emergency managers, schools, and hospitals, and will not be able to implement the latest forecasting research or techniques,” the representatives said.
“But losing all three of these essential employees will increase the risk of errors or missed extreme weather warnings and exacerbate an already overworked staff. NWS forecast office employees are working longer shifts because of the forced staffing reductions, which is leading to severe worker burnout. NWS staff provide a vital public service to the Southeast Texas community, and these employees and our communities deserve better.”
The representatives’ letter said nationwide weather forecast office vacancies are running between 20 to 40 percent, with another agency-wide staff reduction of about 5 percent expected following a round of retirements and buyouts in April. The vacancy rate at the Houston/Galveston Forecast Office exceeds the national average.
“This is extremely concerning ahead of an active hurricane season and as our region continues to recover from Hurricane Beryl,” they said.
Messages sent Wednesday to NOAA media representatives seeking comment had not been returned as of press time.
Stan Blazyk, a Galveston-based weather expert, said the staffing reductions are a recipe for disaster.
“It can have a major effect,” Blazyk said.
He’s concerned that cuts will hamper the Weather Service’s ability to alert local government officials and delay evacuation orders. Getting the word out quickly in the face of a rapidly changing storm is difficult enough with a full contingent of employees, he said.
Blazyk said he already has seen some minor effects from the reductions. He said there have been issues getting the automatic weather data from Scholes International Airport, including on Wednesday when thunderstorms briefly knocked the system offline.
As a result he was unable to get rainfall totals, which are important for flooding information.
In the past the Houston/Galveston office would have sent an employee to Scholes to gather the information manually, but it no longer has the staff to do so, Blazyk said.
The hurricane warning system for Galveston County also has been hampered by its NOAA Weather Radio transmitter being out of commission.
A March 25 fire at the Hitchcock facility that houses the transmitter knocked it offline until further notice.
The representatives’ letter asked NOAA administrators for a timeline for permanently filling the leadership roles and other roles at the Houston/Galveston Forecast Office and how the agency will ensure adequate staffing at the office during extreme weather events.
They also said the issue isn’t unique to the Houston/Galveston area.
“Adequate staffing for the NWS, especially as we go into hurricane season, is a critical matter that could cost lives if left unaddressed,” they said.
View this story in the
Galveston County Daily News.
